Cattle Markets See Recovery, Winter Forecasts Dry and Warm

Cattle Markets See Recovery, Winter Forecasts Dry and Warm

Drought Monitor Update October 15

Montana Drought Monitor Update, October 15, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with improvement of conditions in eastern portions of the state during recent weeks. Dry and warm conditions have persisted across much of the region during the past week. While a limited period of dry and warm conditions is ideal for the maturation, dry down, and harvesting of summer crops, too much time under such conditions degrades topsoil moisture, pasture conditions, and winter grains growth while creating ideal wildfire conditions.

For the upcoming 5-day period (October 15-19), a rather dry weather pattern should exist east of the Rockies, however light rainfall is expected over the weekend. Winter forecasts released this week by NOAA continue to predict abnormally warm and dry conditions in the coming months that will do little to relieve persistent drought conditions along and west of the northern Rockies.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – October 12

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 7,716; Last Week 6,151; Last Year 7,663

Compared to last report: Spring born feeder steers calves sold mostly 5.00-10.00 higher. Heifer calves sold steady to 10.00 higher. Yearling steers were too lightly tested for and market comparison, however steady undertones were noticed. Yearling heifers sold mostly 5.00-8.00 higher in a arrow comparison. Quality this week was mostly average for yearling cattle, with the exception of a few small strings of tested open heifers which were attractive to very attractive. Spring born calves were mostly average to attractive with a few long stings of very attractive offerings. Demand this week was good to very good at times for spring born calves. Notably demand for heifers was much improved this week as some buyers searched for fancy quality heifers that they could use as replacements. Demand for high quality yearling cattle was good to very good at times, with demand for average quality cattle moderate at best.

Weekly reports are now released on Mondays. Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 16

Receipts This Week:  Total 306,200 – 246,300 (Auctions); 40,900 (Direct); 19,000 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 higher with highest advances mostly early in the week as auctions first part of the week
were catching up with major advances from middle of last week. Direct sales were mostly 3.00-10.00 higher. Feeder calves traded 10.00-20.00 higher with instances 25.00-30.00 higher. The cattle complex has experienced a good recovery from the lows made the first of the month. Feeder prices had finally fallen to a point where replacing feeder cattle became attractive to buyers. Many buyers over the last several weeks have been on the sidelines waiting to see when and where this collapse would end. The recovery this week has come at a time when many cow-calf producers are getting ready to sell their calf crop.

After a sharp break in the cattle complex and now that the dust is settling, one positive take is often when the market breaks sharply you can also recover the same way as one extreme leads to another. Cattle futures on Friday closed with sharp triple-digit gains to end the week after a pull back on Thursday. This is a market that has had much price volatility over the last six weeks with Live Cattle prices falling mostly 20.00-25.00 since the first week of September has been an extreme.

Corn harvest is 42 percent completed, compared to 27 percent last week. Soybean harvest continues to barrel along with 62 percent harvested compared to 42 percent last week. Winter wheat planting is 64 percent completed compared to 49 percent last week.

Auction volume included 40% weighing over 600 lbs and 38% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 16

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week on mostly light movement and light to moderate demand. Producers are almost finished with 3rd cutting and a few have started on a 4th. Very limited movement has been seen for high quality 3rd cutting. Lower quality 3rd cutting has seen moderate to good demand and movement has been fairly good. Relative feed values this week ranged from 150-220 as producers continue to get feed test back. Grass hay has seen very light movement and mostly light demand this week. Hay prices in neighboring states continue to be a drag on grass hay prices as many feeders are shopping around to find the best deal

• Alfalfa:
  • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
  • Premium: Large Squares, 180.00
  • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
  • Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-135.00; Large Rounds, 120.00-130.00
• Grass:
  • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
  • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 115.00-120.00
  • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-90.00; Large Rounds, 100.00
• Timothy Grass:
  • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
  • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
• Barley Straw:
  • Large Squares, 35.00-55.00
• Wheat Straw:
  • Large Squares, 25.00 (New crop); 32.00 (Old crop)

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.