November 15, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle Markets Volatile, Hay Trade Favors Cattlemen

Drought Monitor Update November 12

Montana Drought Monitor November 12

Montana Drought Monitor Update, November 12, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Periods of snow and moisture arriving in early November have significantly improved drought conditions across much of Montana during the past few weeks. However, one-third of the state, mostly west of the Divide remain in drought conditions. Areas where drought was more entrenched will need abundant precipitation to continue much farther into the wet season before any notable improvement could evolve.

After significant winds during the past few days, some gusts reaching 90+ mph east of the Divide, conditions should calm into the week ahead. Weather forecasters are predicting the first push of arctic air moving into the state as early as next weekend. Many NRCS SNOTEL sites are reporting below average for this time of year.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – Week of November 15

Market:

Montana Weekly reports are now released on Mondays. Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – November 13

Receipts This Week:  Total 344,900 – 286,600 (Auctions); 23,400 (Direct); 34,900 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: the bulk of the feeder supply consisted of calves which traded mostly 10.00-20.00 lower, instances 25.00-30.00 lower. Yearlings on a light supply traded mostly 5.00-15.00 lower. Direct trade was mostly 5.00-12.00 lower. Last week’s CME “Sky is Falling” attitude continued into this week, keeping stomachs turning and cattle prices hard to manage and resentful to say the least. Buyers became noticeably price cautious and conscious on calves and yearlings.

Cattle futures have remained very volatile, as volatility appears to be out of control. CME cattle futures rebounded on Wednesday with limit moves higher and added to their positions on Thursday but closed Friday with sharp triple-digit losses as the agony and the ecstasy continues. Prices for futures and cash seem to fall faster and further than expected or as one would suggest. Before last week the market had tried to hold the line and continue to wait day by day to see what the next move would be. We have had tremendous weather to feed cattle that have performed very well and a packer who hasn’t had to chase the market; adjusting their kill schedules and having plenty of cattle bought forward. The heavy weight fed cattle situation is improving but not over, U.S. beef exports are near 13 percent lower year to date.

Auction volume included 35% weighing over 600 lbs and 37% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – November 13

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady on light to moderate. Weather conditions have been mostly in cattlemens favor over the last few weeks as many cows and calves remain out on pasture. Demand for hay remains mostly light as a result. Producers needing to move hay have been forced to do so at weaker prices over the last few weeks as demand for hay has lightened. Many cattlemen purchased large quantities of hay late in the summer and as a result they are sitting well on feed needs. A mild fall and limited snow fall totals have limited feed use only adding to demand issues.

Demand for dairy quality, 3rd cutting hay remains limited. Dairy producers continue search for deals and many have already purchased hay for the year. Producers continue to price hay at 1.00 per RFV point, however demand for hay is very limited above 185.00 per ton at any quality level. Grass hay saw light to moderate movement and mostly light demand this week. Prices for grass hay were steady to weak as pressure continues to be seen from from neighboring states.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00; Large Squares 150.00-185.00
    • Premium: Large Squares, 140.00-180.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-135.00
    • Utility: Large Squares, 100.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 115.00-120.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-100.00; Large Rounds, 80.00-110.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 35.00
  • Wheat Straw:
    • Large Squares, 25.00; Large Rounds, 50.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

October 25, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle on Feed Up Two Percent, Hay Prices Dragging

Drought Monitor Update October 22

Montana Drought Monitor October 22

Montana Drought Monitor Update, October 22, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with slight increase in dry conditions in Central Montana this week. Dry weather dominated much of the country, favoring summer crop harvesting and winter wheat planting. However, topsoil moisture shortages hampered wheat emergence and establishment in a variety of regions, including portions of the Plains, lower Midwest, and interior Northwest.

Extremely dry conditions persisted in much of Oregon and Washington, hampering winter crop establishment. By October 18, winter wheat emergence was at least 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace in Oregon (18% emerged) and Washington (62%).

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – Week of October 19

Market:

Montana Weekly reports are now released on Mondays. Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

Cattle on Feed Report – October 23

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.2 million head on October 1, 2015. The inventory was 2 percent above October 1, 2014. The inventory included 6.93 million steers and steer calves, up 7 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 68 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.29 million head, down 7 percent from 2014. October 1, 2015 heifers and heifer calves inventory is the lowest percent of total October inventory since the series began in 1996.

Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.93 million head, 4 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.87 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 290,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 416,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 830,000 head. Placements are the lowest for September since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.64 million head, 2 percent below 2014.

View more in this month’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 23

Receipts This Week:  Total 324,400 – 281,200 (Auctions); 40,100 (Direct); 3,100 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: the calf market this period experienced wide price ranges and trends in all reporting regions, lightweight feeders under 500 lbs selling mostly 5.00-15.00 higher and calves over 500 lbs and yearlings trading fully steady to 5.00 higher with instances 10.00 higher. Last week’s sharply higher fed and feeder cattle markets and sharply higher futures caused feeder prices to come out of the gate with compelling buying interest. The fed cattle market has rallied near 20.00 over the last two weeks, after declining over 30.00 since Mid-August. Feedlot managers have reclaimed a considerable leverage and an overall positive attitude. This has also spilled over into the feeder cattle markets the last two weeks.

CME Live Cattle futures are back to trading at Mid-September levels, prior to the big break in the market. It seems what use to take months for markets to move is now taking days and weeks, hopefully this is not going to be the new norm as this market is trying to find its course. Optimism also remains guarded as the cattle markets continue higher. Futures are also finding renewed buying support. Despite higher futures prices and cattle producers continue to struggle to reach breakeven levels. This still could create some long term tension and volatility.

Corn harvest is now 59 percent completed, with soybeans 77 percent completed.

Auction volume included 39% weighing over 600 lbs and 36% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 23

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady to weak this week on mostly light movement and light to moderate demand. Producers are finished with 3rd cutting and a few have started on a 4th. Rain this week helped improve pasture and range conditions and allowed producers to leave cows turned out. This has decreased short term demand for hay. Demand for high quality 3rd cutting continues to be very limited, however demand for lower quality 3rd cutting was mostly moderate to good, with movement continuing to be seen on RFV under 185. Grass hay saw light movement and mostly light demand this week. Hay prices in neighboring states continue to be a drag on all hay prices as many feeders are shopping around to find the best deal.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Premium: Large Squares, 170.00-180.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 90.00-135.00
    • Utility: Large Squares, 100.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 115.00-120.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-100.00; Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 35.00-55.00
  • Wheat Straw:
    • Large Squares, 25.00 (New crop); 32.00 (Old crop)

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

October 17, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle Markets See Recovery, Winter Forecasts Dry and Warm

Drought Monitor Update October 15

Montana Drought Monitor October 15

Montana Drought Monitor Update, October 15, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with improvement of conditions in eastern portions of the state during recent weeks. Dry and warm conditions have persisted across much of the region during the past week. While a limited period of dry and warm conditions is ideal for the maturation, dry down, and harvesting of summer crops, too much time under such conditions degrades topsoil moisture, pasture conditions, and winter grains growth while creating ideal wildfire conditions.

For the upcoming 5-day period (October 15-19), a rather dry weather pattern should exist east of the Rockies, however light rainfall is expected over the weekend. Winter forecasts released this week by NOAA continue to predict abnormally warm and dry conditions in the coming months that will do little to relieve persistent drought conditions along and west of the northern Rockies.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – October 12

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 7,716; Last Week 6,151; Last Year 7,663

Compared to last report: Spring born feeder steers calves sold mostly 5.00-10.00 higher. Heifer calves sold steady to 10.00 higher. Yearling steers were too lightly tested for and market comparison, however steady undertones were noticed. Yearling heifers sold mostly 5.00-8.00 higher in a arrow comparison. Quality this week was mostly average for yearling cattle, with the exception of a few small strings of tested open heifers which were attractive to very attractive. Spring born calves were mostly average to attractive with a few long stings of very attractive offerings. Demand this week was good to very good at times for spring born calves. Notably demand for heifers was much improved this week as some buyers searched for fancy quality heifers that they could use as replacements. Demand for high quality yearling cattle was good to very good at times, with demand for average quality cattle moderate at best.

Weekly reports are now released on Mondays. Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 16

Receipts This Week:  Total 306,200 – 246,300 (Auctions); 40,900 (Direct); 19,000 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 higher with highest advances mostly early in the week as auctions first part of the week
were catching up with major advances from middle of last week. Direct sales were mostly 3.00-10.00 higher. Feeder calves traded 10.00-20.00 higher with instances 25.00-30.00 higher. The cattle complex has experienced a good recovery from the lows made the first of the month. Feeder prices had finally fallen to a point where replacing feeder cattle became attractive to buyers. Many buyers over the last several weeks have been on the sidelines waiting to see when and where this collapse would end. The recovery this week has come at a time when many cow-calf producers are getting ready to sell their calf crop.

After a sharp break in the cattle complex and now that the dust is settling, one positive take is often when the market breaks sharply you can also recover the same way as one extreme leads to another. Cattle futures on Friday closed with sharp triple-digit gains to end the week after a pull back on Thursday. This is a market that has had much price volatility over the last six weeks with Live Cattle prices falling mostly 20.00-25.00 since the first week of September has been an extreme.

Corn harvest is 42 percent completed, compared to 27 percent last week. Soybean harvest continues to barrel along with 62 percent harvested compared to 42 percent last week. Winter wheat planting is 64 percent completed compared to 49 percent last week.

Auction volume included 40% weighing over 600 lbs and 38% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 16

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week on mostly light movement and light to moderate demand. Producers are almost finished with 3rd cutting and a few have started on a 4th. Very limited movement has been seen for high quality 3rd cutting. Lower quality 3rd cutting has seen moderate to good demand and movement has been fairly good. Relative feed values this week ranged from 150-220 as producers continue to get feed test back. Grass hay has seen very light movement and mostly light demand this week. Hay prices in neighboring states continue to be a drag on grass hay prices as many feeders are shopping around to find the best deal

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Premium: Large Squares, 180.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-135.00; Large Rounds, 120.00-130.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 115.00-120.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-90.00; Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 35.00-55.00
  • Wheat Straw:
    • Large Squares, 25.00 (New crop); 32.00 (Old crop)

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

October 4, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Calf prices remain lower as fall run begins

Drought Monitor Update October 1

Montana Drought Monitor September 24

Montana Drought Monitor Update, October 1, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with no significant changes in recent weeks. For this week’s analysis, above-normal temperatures prevailed across much of the country, seasonably dry weather continued over the western U.S. Hot, dry conditions prevailed, with temperatures averaging more than 10°F above normal. Despite the 90-degree readings and a lack of rain during the period, changes to this week’s drought designation were generally minor.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 6 – 10 calls for above-normal precipitation and near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, with drier-than-normal conditions confined to the lower Southeast.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – October 2

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: NA; Last Week 4,574; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: No report available at this time.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 2

Receipts This Week:  Total 249,800 – 170,300 (Auctions); 53,200 (Direct); 26,300 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle started the week 3.00-5.00 lower then turning mostly 5.00-10.00 lower as the week progressed. Calves traded mostly 5.00-15.00 lower.. Calf prices have lost a third of their value in just a few short months, as any class of feeder calves do not look attractive to buy as the bottom continues to succumb in this market free-fall. Some of the best 500 lb steer calves are now looking at 2.00/lb or less in many areas. Fear seems to be a very good motive that is driving this feeder cattle and fed cattle market as the cash market searches for a bottom.

Last Friday’s limit higher move in the Live and Feeder cattle futures was nothing more than a mirage. Cash fed and feeder cattle prices along with the futures continue to slide into a black hole as the inability to draw any kind of interest into this market has uncertainty dominating the picture as huge losses continue in the cattle complex. The “calf run” is beginning to start and with wide price spreads for similar weight and class calves depending on if they are weaned and have a health program or if they are right-off the cow, severe discounts will more than likely be seen.

With record heavy carcass weights and record highs for the number of cattle grading choice, Choice boxed-beef has lost over 55.00 from the May record high to current.

Corn Belt farmers are in the middle of harvest with 18% of the corn crop completed a bit behind the 5 year average at 23% with 68% still rated good to excellent. Soybean harvest is 21% harvested, compared to the 5 year average of 16% with 62% rated good to excellent.

Auction volume included 47% weighing over 600 lbs and 35% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 2

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady to 10.00 lower this week on light to moderate demand and light to moderate movement. Producers are beginning to wrap up 3rd cutting and many have it priced, however limited movement has been seen to test the market. Rain is currently falling across many parts of the state which is both a relief for wildfire concerns as well as a hindrance for producers putting up high quality 3rd cutting.

Grass hay was mostly steady this week with mostly light movement seen. Feeder quality hay has come under pressure in the last couple of weeks as cattle produces have been looking hard for bargains as calf prices have fallen significantly since June.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Premium: Large Squares, 180.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 115.00-120.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00; Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 40.00-55.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

September 19, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle On Feed Up 3 Percent, Markets Remain Bearish

Drought Monitor Update September 17

Montana Drought Monitor September 17

Montana Drought Monitor Update, September 17, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide, now covering 38.6% of the state. No movement was seen in coverage of drought conditions compared to last report. However, with significant rainfall over portions of the state in recent days, slight improvements may be seen in the next report. Long-term conditions remain dry heading into the Fall season.

Oppressive heat continued into the first half of the period in the Northwest where the average temperatures were 10-20 degrees F above normal. Cooler temperatures moved in during the latter half of the week. For the next 6-10 day period, chances of above average temperatures are likely for the majority of the CONUS. The greatest chances are in the High Plains and down into the Great Basin and Southern California. Chances are likely that a small portion of the Northwest will experience below normal temperatures.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

USDA August Cattle on Feed Report – September 18

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.99 million head on September 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above September 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.63 million head, 5 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.57 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 362,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000 head. Placements are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.59 million head, 6 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during August, 9 percent below 2014.

View the most current Cattle on Feed Report for more information.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 4

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 3,767; Last Week 2,068; Last Year 2,210

Compared to last report: Feeder steers were too lightly tested for an accurate market trend, however steady to weak undertones were seen on both yearling and spring born calves. Heifer feeder calves sold mostly steady to weak on spring born calves and mostly 10.00 lower on yearling offerings. Quality this week was mixed with long strings of very attractive spring born calves seen early in the week and mostly average quality calves the rest of the week. Yearling cattle continue to be attractive to very attractive over all, especially heifers as many are tested open replacement quality.

Weigh conditions were much improved this week with average to above average weigh up on most feeders. Flesh conditions continue to be light as many yearlings are coming off grass and many calves seen this week were out of dry country.

Feeding and replacement cow buyers showed increased interest this week as well which forced packer buyers to continue to be aggressive as they bid on cows. Slaughter bulls sold unevenly steady with feeding bull buyers pushing packers to pay more money for offerings at times. A few sets of cow offerings were in very thin condition, especially cows coming out of the western part of the state where drought conditions continue to push cows to market.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 4

Receipts This Week:  Total 274,600 – 196,200 (Auctions); 44,400 (Direct); 34,000 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 lower, while calf prices traded 10.00-20.00 lower, with instances 25.00 lower. The feeder cattle market remains in a very bearish camp with all systems on the go to the downside. Several auctions saw the arrival of spring born calves, but have yet to see them arrive in droves. The onset of the wide spread between daytime high temperatures and overnight lows is typical of autumn’s arrival. The increased supply of calves getting ready to hit the market at lower prices will cause buyers to be extremely more selective in their purchases. With the market in a downtrend discounts will more than likely become even more severe on unweaned and fleshy calves.

Last Friday saw sharp triple-digit losses in both Live and Feeder cattle futures continued into this week with more heavy losses with the lack of any bullish news to help the market. This has market psychology extremely on the defensive side. With another week of falling prices in the fed cattle market doesn’t seem to anticipate a price rally anytime soon continues to weigh heavy on the feeder cattle market giving feeders little leverage. At this time it’s hard to say when and where fed cattle prices will bottom.

Auction volume included 53% weighing over 600 lbs and 39% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 18

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady this week on moderate demand and light movement. Light rain moved across much of the south central portion of the state yesterday and many producers couldn’t get their 3rd cutting up in time. Most areas received only light rainfall totals of less than .5 inch, however this put a dent in many producers hope of putting up a very high dairy quality crop.

Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. Hay for export continues to move at the bottom end of the range. Montana hay prices continue to be higher than many surrounding states as dry conditions in the western portion of the state continue to prop up prices.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 40.00-55.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

September 6, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle Markets See Slight Correction, Continued Downward Pressure

Drought Monitor Update September 3

Montana Drought Monitor September 3

Montana Drought Monitor Update, September 3, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide, now covering 40% of the state. A continuing lack of precipitation across western Montana prompted a slight eastward shift of all drought categories.

Recent days have brought beneficial precipitation for western Washington (1.5 inches), northern Montana (2-4 inches). This combined with cooler temperatures and higher elevation snow have brought some fire and smoke relief for the region. As of Sunday afternoon, several fires are listed as active in Montana. Many areas west of the Divide remain in Stage II fire restrictions.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 4

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 2,103; Last Week 1,529; Last Year 1,087

Compared to last report: Yearling feeder steers and heifers were too lightly tested in any one particular weight category for an accurate market trend, however steady to firm undertones were noticed on steers and steady to weak undertones were noticed on heifers. Quality this week was mixed with both average plain made offerings and very high quality fancy strings of both young calves and yearlings. Weigh-up conditions for yearlings were average to below average at times with many offerings coming straight off grass pushing some fill. Flesh conditions were very light to moderate. Flesh conditions varied drastically this week due to variable pasture and range conditions across the state. Demand for most feeder cattle was moderate, with moderate to good demand seen at times for higher quality offerings.

Weigh-up cows sold with light to moderate demand throughout the week. Weigh-up conditions were average to below average with many cows coming out of very dry country. Quality this week was mostly below average to average and notably higher than last week. Demand for Slaughter cows was mostly moderate with packers showing more willingness to purchase higher quality cows. Slaughter cows sold mostly steady on like quality. Feeding cow buyers showed some increased interest this week as higher quality cattle came through the ring.

A smaller run of cull bulls was seen this week, and many of these bulls were destined to be put on feed. Slaughter bulls sold mostly 3.00 lower. 2-3 year old cows sold with good demand this week as buyers fought over limited offerings.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 4

Receipts This Week:  Total 211,300 – 140,700 (Auctions); 54,400 (Direct); 16,200 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearlings traded mostly steady to 3.00 higher (mostly early to midweek) with calves selling steady to 5.00 higher. Several auctions late in the week mostly in the Northern Plains were 5.00-10.00 lower when compared to two weeks ago. After last week’s emotional and very draining week of trading with big moves to the downside in the commodity and equity markets feeder cattle and fed cattle prices were some of the biggest victims of the purge. Calf and yearling prices definitely had room to correct higher; which at most auctions showed some stability and strength this week. The best demand for yearlings remains in the Northern Plains and the availability of yearling cattle is very tight which has created a good competition from cattle buyers needing to procure yearling cattle.

The fall run will soon be underway and usually calf prices feel the pressure as they are pulled off grass as receipts increase with many unweaned and fleshy calves coming to market. For the most part, feeder cattle prices are still feeling pressure from the losses of current fed cattle prices. We have previously seen huge premiums carried by the feeder cattle to the fat cattle and are starting to see a reality check as feeders are seeing prices dropping faster than the fats. Packers are seeing some decent margins, but want to keep those as long as possible, while feedyards are trying to get some of it back; fighting lower bids.

Fears of China’s financial concerns continue to bleed over into U.S. equity and commodity markets which produce a risk mentality for many of the agriculture markets and outlook for livestock prices. The velocity of last week’s sell-off should not be a surprise, but it does leave an impression on the markets. This keeps traders’ attitudes, positions and frame of minds changing fast and in a hurry.

Auction volume included 53% weighing over 600 lbs and 36% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 4

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was fully steady this week on moderate demand and light movement as many producers are in the fields harvesting other crops. Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. Hay prices across the state have remained steady over the last few weeks. Rain is forecasted and currently falling over much of the northern half of the state and is a very welcomed sight for many dry areas. Much of the central part of the state received rain over the weekend making it hard for producers to put up third cutting. Smoky conditions from wildfires has eased some within the last week.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 115.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Good: Large Rounds: 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 40.00-55.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

August 30, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle Markets Trending Down, Extreme Drought Expands in West

Drought Monitor Update August 27

Montana Drought Monitor August 27

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 27, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Extreme drought continues to expand west of the Divide, now covering 18% of the state. In the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, the USDA Forest Service reported approximately 40 large wildfires in progress as of August 26th, as warm and very dry weather persisted.

Moderate drought (D1) was expanded across southeast portions of Idaho. The change is based on low stream flows in the Teton and Henrys Fork basins, and precipitation deficits during the last 60-90 days. Extreme drought (D3) coverage was expanded across east-central Washington, and north-central and northeastern Oregon. Some considerations in the D3 expansion across the Northwest include daily record low stream flows, short-term (2-month) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values, and low precipitation amounts from June 1 – present time throughout the region. In some cases, record or near-record dryness was reported for the June 1 – present time.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – August 28

Market: Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: NA; Last Week NA; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: No weekly summary was posted for Montana markets this week due to light tests, however unevenly steady undertones were noticed on all yearling feeders. Feeder cattle quality was mostly average to attractive, with a few strings of very attractive offerings coming off grass. Flesh conditions were mostly very light to light today as many offerings were coming out of dry country. Demand for feeder cattle was mostly moderate, with moderate to good demand seen at times as buyers continue fight for good lightly fleshed grass cattle to fill feedlots.

Individual reports are available for Billings Livestock and Public Auction Yards.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 28

Receipts This Week:  Total 372,100 – 139,000 (Auctions); 30,700 (Direct); 202,400 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearlings traded 5.00-10.00 lower with calves selling 10.00-20.00 lower, with instances 25.00-30.00 lower. Order buyers this week were extremely cautious after aggressive pressure from the Stock Market tumble and with very bearish outside markets keeping a strain on all commodity markets. This had order buyers wanting and needing to buy feeders cheaper this week. The cattle complex remains focused on the ability for outside market fundamentals to stabilize and to steady. Demand for calves was light to moderate, with best demand for yearlings; several auctions were getting ready for the “fall run” noting the arrival of new-crop bawling calves this week. With corrections coming in the feeder cattle market, this has prices retreating with pressure coming from fed cattle prices heading back to their summer lows.

Many backgrounders and cattle grazers who have held a little too long are not going to see a rally they have enjoyed in the past, as many yearling steers weighing from 850-950 lbs are trading both sides of 200.00; Prices dropping 10.00-15.00 from early summer highs. As fed cattle prices are declining, cattle feeders are adjusting what they pay for feeder cattle. So far this year, feeder cattle prices have been too high in relation to fed cattle prices and even despite lower feeder cattle prices this week demand remains good for yearlings in the Northern Plains.

Livestock markets remain vulnerable and reacted with lower prices in reaction to global financial worries mostly coming from China’s economic fears. Traders know this affects the commodity markets and as a result, funds have been mostly sellers to reduce their exposure in the commodities. The sell-off in the cattle complex is much hastier and fast paced than the rallies, just getting back to even is a big task.

Auction volume included 52% weighing over 600 lbs and 34% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 28

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week and excellent movement was seen across the state. Demand for Alfalfa was moderate this week on moderate offerings. Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. The western half of the state continues to remain in extreme drought and this region continues to see the best demand for both grass and alfalfa. Wildfires continue to cause smoky, hazy conditions for much of the central and eastern half of the state. This has forced many producers to watch the forecast very closely as hay drying times have increased drastically.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 115.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Utility: Large Squares, 100.00 Old Crop
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Good: Large Rounds: 125.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
    • Utility: Large Rounds, 90.00 Old Crop
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 40.00-55.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

August 22, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent, Smoke Impedes Second Hay Cutting

Drought Monitor Update August 20

Montana Drought Monitor August 20

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 20, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Extreme drought continues to hold its grip on portions of far Western Montana where fire danger remains immediate concern. Warm, dry air continued to dominate the West. Click here to hear from Idaho ranchers impacted by the large Soda Fire.

California continues to deal with its ongoing drought. Water managers and farmers are adapting their practices to help conserve water and reduce economic loss in the state.

During the next 6-10 days, chances are likely Montana will experience warmer than normal temperatures with a strong ridge holding its grip on the West.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – August 21

Market: Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 2,398; Last Week NA; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: The majority of feeder cattle offered this week were yearlings. Quality this week was average to attractive with a few long strings of very attractive yearlings. Yearlings offered this week come both off grass as well as out of backgrounding lots. Overall flesh conditions were light to moderate this week. Even backgrounded yearlings were in light to moderate flesh and sold equally as well as grass cattle.

Weigh-up cows sold overall with light to moderate demand on mostly light offerings. Demand for Slaughter cows was light to moderate this week with the best demand seen for boning and lean cows. Fleshy breaking cows sold on light demand as packer buyer back off on these offerings. This allowed for feeding cow buyers to purchase some of these offerings to return to the country to feed. A large run of cull bulls continues to come to town after the breeding season. Many of these bulls in very light to light flesh.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

August Cattle On Feed Report

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.0 million head on August 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above August 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.55 million head, 1 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.49 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 235,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 327,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 620,000 head. Placements are the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.73 million head, 3 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.

Read more from USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 21

Receipts This Week:  Total 178,200 – 136,300 (Auctions); 24,500 (Direct); 17,400 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: calves and yearlings traded weak to 5.00 lower with a number of instances 10.00 lower from midweek on. Direct sales traded steady to 2.00 lower early in the week, then turning 3.00-7.00 lower late week. Cattle futures seem to keep the focus on the bearish side, not wanting to show much life. Cattle futures on Wednesday reared their ugly head closing with sharp triple-digit losses, making new lows for the month. Market psychology keeps focus on negative fundamentals, with plentiful supplies and lower prices for competing meats, struggling outside markets, lower meat exports and the focus of trading the market on what is happening right now.

In the next 30-45 days auctions should see a good number of feeder cattle moving off pasture into feed yards. Unless the fed cattle market gets a move up the feeder cattle market won’t be able to maintain the premiums that has been paid for yearlings and calves the previous months.Time is running out to take advantage of summer grilling demand and with the fed cattle market remaining stagnant, cut-out values have made some steady gains over the last couple of weeks heading into Labor Day Weekend.

Auction volume included 54 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 36 percent heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 21

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week as rains across the northern and eastern parts of the state over the past few weeks have eased some forage concerns. The urgency to find hay seen earlier in the month seems to have scaled back as pasture and range conditions have improved. Demand for Alfalfa was moderate this week. Grass hay experienced many of the same issues as lighter demand was seen across the state this week. Many producers seem willing to wait this out and see if market conditions improve as we head into fall.

The western half of the state continues to remain in extreme drought conditions and wildfires continue to plague the area. Hay to ship to this region of the state remains in good demand and has helped provide some stability to the rest of the state’s hay markets. Additionally, the wildfires have caused smoky conditions for much of the central and eastern half of the state causing low visibility conditions. This has impeded many finishing up second cutting or starting on third as hazy, overcast conditions make for longer dry times.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 115.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Grass:
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-210.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

August 15, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle Futures Skeptical, Feed Costs Down, Global Trade Rocky

Drought Monitor Update August 13

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 13, 2015.

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 13, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Extreme drought continues to hold its grip on portions of far Western Montana where fire danger remains immediate concern. Cooler than normal temperatures dominated the west this last week. Most areas were normal to 5 degrees below normal for the week, followed by much warmer temperatures this week.

In Washington and Oregon, D3 conditions were pushed to the west as low flows on rivers and streams and warm water temperatures are impacting the region. In Idaho, D3 was expanded in the northern portion of the state where conditions continue to worsen.

The high plains and northern Rocky Mountains look to be 3-6 degrees below normal during the next week.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Summary for Week Ending August 14

Receipts: 765; Last Week 200; Last Year 0

Compared to last report: Not enough comparable sales on feeder steers or heifers for a market trend. Supply consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs and 33% heifers. Steers: Medium and Large 1 Current 900 lbs 207.80; Sep 835 lbs 213.30. Heifers: Medium and Large 1 Sep 850 lbs 203.00.

Read more from USDA’s latest Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Summary.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 14

Receipts This Week:  Total 229,700 – 129,900 (Auctions); 53,100 (Direct); 46,700 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold steady to 3.00 higher while calves traded on a lighter test traded steady to 5.00 higher. Several auctions on yearling feeders noted full advance on the heifers. Direct trade was fully steady with last week. Yearling demand continues to be best in the high corn production areas especially in the North Central States as farmer feeders are also engaged in purchasing yearlings to feed. Last Friday packers bid aggressively on tight fed cattle supplies ranging from 150.00-153.00 for live prices. Signs of beef demand improving with seasonal strength has packers selling product higher and managing their kill levels has them operating more positive to the black.

This week saw some wild shifts in the commodity markets starting with the USDA Crop Report on Wednesday. USDA’s Crop Report on Wednesday saw larger than expected corn and soybean estimates than trade expected. This should be welcome news for livestock producers as feed cost should remain relatively low and support expansion in beef, pork and poultry. The protein pipeline is putting out a good amount of product from all three species involved.

There have been some significant challenges over the last several months and of late as on Tuesday China devalued their currency over slumping economy in the world’s second largest economy. This sent the Dow in a sell-off mood on Tuesday along with wide spread commodity pressure as other world countries feeling it could get harder to sell their goods and products to China. A continuing strong dollar relative to other currencies has other countries buying less as it puts a decline in their purchasing power. Increasing production and competition from pork and poultry may have some challenges for beef domestically and abroad.

Feeder Cattle contracts want to anticipate better news especially in the fed cattle market but seem skeptical to participate. On Wednesday Feeder cattle futures had gains of near 2.50 with sharply lower corn contracts, but live cattle contracts eroded with sharp losses and support for feeders quickly faded and were unable to hold strong midday gains. But feeder cattle prices this week and last week reported through the auctions and video sales are much more resilient than the cattle futures.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 14

Compared to last week: Alfalfa sold steady to 10.00 lower. No comparison for Grass hay or Timothy grass. Trade for all types of hay was slow to inactive. Rain was still pervasive throughout the week which impeded hay making. What hay did get made is poor quality. Throughout the coming week, the state is expected to experience mostly warm temperatures with intermittent clouds.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-210.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 150.75-155.00
  • Grass:
    • Good: Large Squares, 140.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-210.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

August 8, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Hay Prices and Cattle Markets Remain Firm With Good Demand

Drought Monitor Update August 6

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 4, 2015.

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 6, 2015. Click image to learn more.

As can be expected this time of year, it was a pretty uneventful week on the precipitation front across most of the region, including a quiet monsoon signal across the Desert Southwest. The West remains unchanged this week but the impacts (near-record/record low streamflow, water supply, water temperatures, fire, etc.) are still being felt and are of major concern as we head toward a new water year with September now on the horizon.

For the period August 6 through August 11, monsoon precipitation will again be relatively scarce across the Desert Southwest and the rest of the West will be seasonally dry as well. One significant feature worth noting is that the 8-14 day outlook projects a stronger likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the West.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Summary for Week Ending August 7

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 1,188; Last Week 997; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: Supply of Feeder cattle this week was very light and consisted of mostly single head lots and a few larger, good quality, groups. CME futures contract prices ended with the August contract at .95 lower to close at 214.975 and September 1.35 lower at 211.475. Throughout the week, Slaughter cows sold firm with good demand. Feeding cows and Cows returning to the country sold very light. Even though supply of Slaughter bulls increased significantly this week, Slaughter bulls sold firm with good demand. The moderate supply consisted of mostly average and high dressing bulls.

Read more from USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Auction Summary.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 7

Receipts This Week:  Total 341,400 – 104,300 (Auctions); 46,700 (Direct); 190,400 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: calves and yearlings sold steady to 5.00 higher with instances up to 10.00 higher across the Midwest and Southern Plains. Last week’s higher fed cattle market caused feeder prices to rebound this week. Demand was good on light to moderate receipts. Cattle futures all turned green on Monday with triple-digit gains of over 3.00 on feeder cattle contracts but, failed to charge ahead the rest of the week. Monday’s rally in the futures was supported by higher fed cattle trade last Friday with ideas that a seasonal bottom has been found.

Short bought packers had some immediate needs to buy fed cattle and hopefully have found a spot where fed cattle prices want to turn around. Cattle futures seem at this time to have many traders on the sidelines taking a wait and see attitude. Feeder cattle prices pretty much are going to be driven by the fed cattle market and if fed cattle have put in a summer low, how much upside potential does the fed cattle market have? The market still needs some kind of news to bring fat cattle up to a level where feeders will make money when finished.

A strong US dollar and continuing to import beef at a good pace; are factors that have bought us to a place where we are moving meat domestically and abroad at a slower pace which has created some excess. The US Jobs report was released Friday morning showing job growth remaining steady with 215,000 jobs added a little below expectations. Signs of slack persist as unemployment remains flat at 5.3%.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 7

Compared to last week: Alfalfa sold steady to 10.00 higher. Grass sold steady. Trade for all types of hay was slow to inactive. Rain throughout the week greened pastures, making buyers less likely to seek out bailed hay. This rain also dampened second cutting forcing producers to bail wet hay. Throughout the coming week, the state is expected to experience mostly clear weather and warm temperatures.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 210.00-220.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 150.00-160.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 115.00-140.00
  • Grass:
    • Premium: Large Squares, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 100.00-120.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • No Market Test

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.