Cattle On Feed Up 3 Percent, Markets Remain Bearish

Cattle On Feed Up 3 Percent, Markets Remain Bearish

Drought Monitor Update September 17

Montana Drought Monitor Update, September 17, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide, now covering 38.6% of the state. No movement was seen in coverage of drought conditions compared to last report. However, with significant rainfall over portions of the state in recent days, slight improvements may be seen in the next report. Long-term conditions remain dry heading into the Fall season.

Oppressive heat continued into the first half of the period in the Northwest where the average temperatures were 10-20 degrees F above normal. Cooler temperatures moved in during the latter half of the week. For the next 6-10 day period, chances of above average temperatures are likely for the majority of the CONUS. The greatest chances are in the High Plains and down into the Great Basin and Southern California. Chances are likely that a small portion of the Northwest will experience below normal temperatures.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

USDA August Cattle on Feed Report – September 18

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.99 million head on September 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above September 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.63 million head, 5 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.57 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 362,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000 head. Placements are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.59 million head, 6 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during August, 9 percent below 2014.

View the most current Cattle on Feed Report for more information.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 4

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 3,767; Last Week 2,068; Last Year 2,210

Compared to last report: Feeder steers were too lightly tested for an accurate market trend, however steady to weak undertones were seen on both yearling and spring born calves. Heifer feeder calves sold mostly steady to weak on spring born calves and mostly 10.00 lower on yearling offerings. Quality this week was mixed with long strings of very attractive spring born calves seen early in the week and mostly average quality calves the rest of the week. Yearling cattle continue to be attractive to very attractive over all, especially heifers as many are tested open replacement quality.

Weigh conditions were much improved this week with average to above average weigh up on most feeders. Flesh conditions continue to be light as many yearlings are coming off grass and many calves seen this week were out of dry country.

Feeding and replacement cow buyers showed increased interest this week as well which forced packer buyers to continue to be aggressive as they bid on cows. Slaughter bulls sold unevenly steady with feeding bull buyers pushing packers to pay more money for offerings at times. A few sets of cow offerings were in very thin condition, especially cows coming out of the western part of the state where drought conditions continue to push cows to market.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 4

Receipts This Week:  Total 274,600 – 196,200 (Auctions); 44,400 (Direct); 34,000 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 lower, while calf prices traded 10.00-20.00 lower, with instances 25.00 lower. The feeder cattle market remains in a very bearish camp with all systems on the go to the downside. Several auctions saw the arrival of spring born calves, but have yet to see them arrive in droves. The onset of the wide spread between daytime high temperatures and overnight lows is typical of autumn’s arrival. The increased supply of calves getting ready to hit the market at lower prices will cause buyers to be extremely more selective in their purchases. With the market in a downtrend discounts will more than likely become even more severe on unweaned and fleshy calves.

Last Friday saw sharp triple-digit losses in both Live and Feeder cattle futures continued into this week with more heavy losses with the lack of any bullish news to help the market. This has market psychology extremely on the defensive side. With another week of falling prices in the fed cattle market doesn’t seem to anticipate a price rally anytime soon continues to weigh heavy on the feeder cattle market giving feeders little leverage. At this time it’s hard to say when and where fed cattle prices will bottom.

Auction volume included 53% weighing over 600 lbs and 39% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 18

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady this week on moderate demand and light movement. Light rain moved across much of the south central portion of the state yesterday and many producers couldn’t get their 3rd cutting up in time. Most areas received only light rainfall totals of less than .5 inch, however this put a dent in many producers hope of putting up a very high dairy quality crop.

Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. Hay for export continues to move at the bottom end of the range. Montana hay prices continue to be higher than many surrounding states as dry conditions in the western portion of the state continue to prop up prices.

• Alfalfa:
  • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
  • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
  • Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
• Grass:
  • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
  • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
• Timothy Grass:
  • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
  • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
• Barley Straw:
  • Large Squares, 40.00-55.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.