October 25, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle on Feed Up Two Percent, Hay Prices Dragging

Drought Monitor Update October 22

Montana Drought Monitor October 22

Montana Drought Monitor Update, October 22, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide with slight increase in dry conditions in Central Montana this week. Dry weather dominated much of the country, favoring summer crop harvesting and winter wheat planting. However, topsoil moisture shortages hampered wheat emergence and establishment in a variety of regions, including portions of the Plains, lower Midwest, and interior Northwest.

Extremely dry conditions persisted in much of Oregon and Washington, hampering winter crop establishment. By October 18, winter wheat emergence was at least 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average pace in Oregon (18% emerged) and Washington (62%).

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – Week of October 19

Market:

Montana Weekly reports are now released on Mondays. Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

Cattle on Feed Report – October 23

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.2 million head on October 1, 2015. The inventory was 2 percent above October 1, 2014. The inventory included 6.93 million steers and steer calves, up 7 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 68 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.29 million head, down 7 percent from 2014. October 1, 2015 heifers and heifer calves inventory is the lowest percent of total October inventory since the series began in 1996.

Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.93 million head, 4 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.87 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 290,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 416,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 830,000 head. Placements are the lowest for September since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.64 million head, 2 percent below 2014.

View more in this month’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – October 23

Receipts This Week:  Total 324,400 – 281,200 (Auctions); 40,100 (Direct); 3,100 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: the calf market this period experienced wide price ranges and trends in all reporting regions, lightweight feeders under 500 lbs selling mostly 5.00-15.00 higher and calves over 500 lbs and yearlings trading fully steady to 5.00 higher with instances 10.00 higher. Last week’s sharply higher fed and feeder cattle markets and sharply higher futures caused feeder prices to come out of the gate with compelling buying interest. The fed cattle market has rallied near 20.00 over the last two weeks, after declining over 30.00 since Mid-August. Feedlot managers have reclaimed a considerable leverage and an overall positive attitude. This has also spilled over into the feeder cattle markets the last two weeks.

CME Live Cattle futures are back to trading at Mid-September levels, prior to the big break in the market. It seems what use to take months for markets to move is now taking days and weeks, hopefully this is not going to be the new norm as this market is trying to find its course. Optimism also remains guarded as the cattle markets continue higher. Futures are also finding renewed buying support. Despite higher futures prices and cattle producers continue to struggle to reach breakeven levels. This still could create some long term tension and volatility.

Corn harvest is now 59 percent completed, with soybeans 77 percent completed.

Auction volume included 39% weighing over 600 lbs and 36% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – October 23

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady to weak this week on mostly light movement and light to moderate demand. Producers are finished with 3rd cutting and a few have started on a 4th. Rain this week helped improve pasture and range conditions and allowed producers to leave cows turned out. This has decreased short term demand for hay. Demand for high quality 3rd cutting continues to be very limited, however demand for lower quality 3rd cutting was mostly moderate to good, with movement continuing to be seen on RFV under 185. Grass hay saw light movement and mostly light demand this week. Hay prices in neighboring states continue to be a drag on all hay prices as many feeders are shopping around to find the best deal.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Premium: Large Squares, 170.00-180.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 90.00-135.00
    • Utility: Large Squares, 100.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 115.00-120.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 80.00-100.00; Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 35.00-55.00
  • Wheat Straw:
    • Large Squares, 25.00 (New crop); 32.00 (Old crop)

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

September 19, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle On Feed Up 3 Percent, Markets Remain Bearish

Drought Monitor Update September 17

Montana Drought Monitor September 17

Montana Drought Monitor Update, September 17, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Moderate to Extreme drought continues along and west of the Divide, now covering 38.6% of the state. No movement was seen in coverage of drought conditions compared to last report. However, with significant rainfall over portions of the state in recent days, slight improvements may be seen in the next report. Long-term conditions remain dry heading into the Fall season.

Oppressive heat continued into the first half of the period in the Northwest where the average temperatures were 10-20 degrees F above normal. Cooler temperatures moved in during the latter half of the week. For the next 6-10 day period, chances of above average temperatures are likely for the majority of the CONUS. The greatest chances are in the High Plains and down into the Great Basin and Southern California. Chances are likely that a small portion of the Northwest will experience below normal temperatures.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

USDA August Cattle on Feed Report – September 18

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.99 million head on September 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above September 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.63 million head, 5 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.57 million head. During August, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 395,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 362,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 660,000 head. Placements are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.59 million head, 6 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for August since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during August, 9 percent below 2014.

View the most current Cattle on Feed Report for more information.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – September 4

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 3,767; Last Week 2,068; Last Year 2,210

Compared to last report: Feeder steers were too lightly tested for an accurate market trend, however steady to weak undertones were seen on both yearling and spring born calves. Heifer feeder calves sold mostly steady to weak on spring born calves and mostly 10.00 lower on yearling offerings. Quality this week was mixed with long strings of very attractive spring born calves seen early in the week and mostly average quality calves the rest of the week. Yearling cattle continue to be attractive to very attractive over all, especially heifers as many are tested open replacement quality.

Weigh conditions were much improved this week with average to above average weigh up on most feeders. Flesh conditions continue to be light as many yearlings are coming off grass and many calves seen this week were out of dry country.

Feeding and replacement cow buyers showed increased interest this week as well which forced packer buyers to continue to be aggressive as they bid on cows. Slaughter bulls sold unevenly steady with feeding bull buyers pushing packers to pay more money for offerings at times. A few sets of cow offerings were in very thin condition, especially cows coming out of the western part of the state where drought conditions continue to push cows to market.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – September 4

Receipts This Week:  Total 274,600 – 196,200 (Auctions); 44,400 (Direct); 34,000 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold 5.00-15.00 lower, while calf prices traded 10.00-20.00 lower, with instances 25.00 lower. The feeder cattle market remains in a very bearish camp with all systems on the go to the downside. Several auctions saw the arrival of spring born calves, but have yet to see them arrive in droves. The onset of the wide spread between daytime high temperatures and overnight lows is typical of autumn’s arrival. The increased supply of calves getting ready to hit the market at lower prices will cause buyers to be extremely more selective in their purchases. With the market in a downtrend discounts will more than likely become even more severe on unweaned and fleshy calves.

Last Friday saw sharp triple-digit losses in both Live and Feeder cattle futures continued into this week with more heavy losses with the lack of any bullish news to help the market. This has market psychology extremely on the defensive side. With another week of falling prices in the fed cattle market doesn’t seem to anticipate a price rally anytime soon continues to weigh heavy on the feeder cattle market giving feeders little leverage. At this time it’s hard to say when and where fed cattle prices will bottom.

Auction volume included 53% weighing over 600 lbs and 39% heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – September 18

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was generally steady this week on moderate demand and light movement. Light rain moved across much of the south central portion of the state yesterday and many producers couldn’t get their 3rd cutting up in time. Most areas received only light rainfall totals of less than .5 inch, however this put a dent in many producers hope of putting up a very high dairy quality crop.

Grass hay experienced much of the same movement volumes as alfalfa. Hay for export continues to move at the bottom end of the range. Montana hay prices continue to be higher than many surrounding states as dry conditions in the western portion of the state continue to prop up prices.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 110.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Grass:
    • Alfalfa Mix Premium: Large Squares: 170.00; Good Large Rounds, 125.00-140.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 135.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00
  • Barley Straw:
    • Large Squares, 40.00-55.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

August 22, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent, Smoke Impedes Second Hay Cutting

Drought Monitor Update August 20

Montana Drought Monitor August 20

Montana Drought Monitor Update, August 20, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Extreme drought continues to hold its grip on portions of far Western Montana where fire danger remains immediate concern. Warm, dry air continued to dominate the West. Click here to hear from Idaho ranchers impacted by the large Soda Fire.

California continues to deal with its ongoing drought. Water managers and farmers are adapting their practices to help conserve water and reduce economic loss in the state.

During the next 6-10 days, chances are likely Montana will experience warmer than normal temperatures with a strong ridge holding its grip on the West.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Report – August 21

Market: Public Auction Yards, Miles City

Receipts: 2,398; Last Week NA; Last Year NA

Compared to last report: The majority of feeder cattle offered this week were yearlings. Quality this week was average to attractive with a few long strings of very attractive yearlings. Yearlings offered this week come both off grass as well as out of backgrounding lots. Overall flesh conditions were light to moderate this week. Even backgrounded yearlings were in light to moderate flesh and sold equally as well as grass cattle.

Weigh-up cows sold overall with light to moderate demand on mostly light offerings. Demand for Slaughter cows was light to moderate this week with the best demand seen for boning and lean cows. Fleshy breaking cows sold on light demand as packer buyer back off on these offerings. This allowed for feeding cow buyers to purchase some of these offerings to return to the country to feed. A large run of cull bulls continues to come to town after the breeding season. Many of these bulls in very light to light flesh.

Read more in USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Market Report.

August Cattle On Feed Report

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.0 million head on August 1, 2015. The inventory was 3 percent above August 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.55 million head, 1 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.49 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 365,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 235,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 327,000 head, and 800 pounds and greater were 620,000 head. Placements are the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.

Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.73 million head, 3 percent below 2014. Marketings are the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.

Read more from USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – August 21

Receipts This Week:  Total 178,200 – 136,300 (Auctions); 24,500 (Direct); 17,400 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: calves and yearlings traded weak to 5.00 lower with a number of instances 10.00 lower from midweek on. Direct sales traded steady to 2.00 lower early in the week, then turning 3.00-7.00 lower late week. Cattle futures seem to keep the focus on the bearish side, not wanting to show much life. Cattle futures on Wednesday reared their ugly head closing with sharp triple-digit losses, making new lows for the month. Market psychology keeps focus on negative fundamentals, with plentiful supplies and lower prices for competing meats, struggling outside markets, lower meat exports and the focus of trading the market on what is happening right now.

In the next 30-45 days auctions should see a good number of feeder cattle moving off pasture into feed yards. Unless the fed cattle market gets a move up the feeder cattle market won’t be able to maintain the premiums that has been paid for yearlings and calves the previous months.Time is running out to take advantage of summer grilling demand and with the fed cattle market remaining stagnant, cut-out values have made some steady gains over the last couple of weeks heading into Labor Day Weekend.

Auction volume included 54 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 36 percent heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – August 21

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady this week as rains across the northern and eastern parts of the state over the past few weeks have eased some forage concerns. The urgency to find hay seen earlier in the month seems to have scaled back as pasture and range conditions have improved. Demand for Alfalfa was moderate this week. Grass hay experienced many of the same issues as lighter demand was seen across the state this week. Many producers seem willing to wait this out and see if market conditions improve as we head into fall.

The western half of the state continues to remain in extreme drought conditions and wildfires continue to plague the area. Hay to ship to this region of the state remains in good demand and has helped provide some stability to the rest of the state’s hay markets. Additionally, the wildfires have caused smoky conditions for much of the central and eastern half of the state causing low visibility conditions. This has impeded many finishing up second cutting or starting on third as hazy, overcast conditions make for longer dry times.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-225.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-170.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 115.00-140.00; Large Rounds, 120.00
  • Grass:
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00
    • Fair: Large Rounds, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00-210.00
    • Good: Large Rounds, 120.00; Small Squares, 150.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

May 23, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent, USDA Montana Reports Week Ending May 23

United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent

Click image to view larger version.

Click image to view larger version.

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.6 million head on May 1, 2015. The inventory was 1 percent above May 1, 2014.

Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.55 million, 5 percent below 2014. Net placements were 1.48 million head.

During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000, 600-699 pounds were 240,000, 700-799 pounds were 348,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 640,000.

Click image to view larger version.

Click image to view larger version.

Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.64 million, 8 percent below 2014. April marketings are the lowest since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 66,000 during April, 20 percent below 2014

Read more from the USDA’s May 22 Cattle on Feed report.

 

 

Montana Weekly Auction Summary for the week ending May 23, 2015

Market: Billings Livestock Commission, Miles City, Public Auction Yards

Receipts: 2,606; Last Week 5,452; Last Year 2,671

Compared to last week: Feeder cattle were all too lightly tested this week for an accurate market trend. Feeder cattle were of mostly plain and average quality this week, with a few small packages of attractive cattle scattered throughout the sales. Demand for feeder cattle continues to be moderate to good, however demand for high quality feeders is good to very good on very light offerings.

Weigh-up cows sold with good to very good demand this week on mostly moderate offerings. Slaughter cows sold 1.00-2.00 higher on all classes of slaughtercows offered this week. Packer buyers continue to have to fight for offerings as buyers looking forcows to feed and breed push prices higher yet again this week. Quality this week was overall very good which gave buyers even more reason to fight over offerings.

Buyers searching for breeding stock purchased young aged cows on moderate to good demand this week. Young aged 2-3 year olds sold mostly higher with increased interest from all buyers. Feeding cows sold higher this week as well. Cow/calf pairs continue to be offered across the state. Most offerings sold with very good demand. Aged broken mouth cows sold on the best demand this week with many ranchers searching for short keep cows to run on grass this summer.

Read more from USDA’s May 23 Montana Weekly Auction Summary.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – Week Ending May 22, 2015

Feeders this week total – 204,700; Included Auctions-168,000; Direct-29,900; Video/Internet-6,800.

Compared to last week, yearlings sold fully steady to 3.00 higher with instances 5.00 higher as advance continues to be on heavy yearlings over 800 lbs.  Demand remains very good on yearlings as the draw of steady fed cattle prices on light trade Wednesday in Kansas at 161.00 continues to bring additional interest back to feeder cattle.

Steer and heifer calves traded steady to instances 5.00 higher where tested (mostly throughout the Midwest).Production areas farther north and west simply don’t do enough fall calving to test the market this time of the year, and the old crop calves are long gone.

Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report had May 1 inventory at 101 percent; placements at 95 percent and marketings at 92 percent.  Inventory was close to expectations, with placements significantly smaller than expected and marketings close to expectations.  Corn and soybean planting have had one of the nicest planting starts in several seasons, as corn planting is now 85 percent complete ahead of the 5-year average of 75 percent. Soybeans are 45 percent planted ahead of the 5-year average of 36 percent.

Auction Receipts:  168,000   Last Week:  147,500   Last Year:  172,200

  • Montana 2,600.  89% over 600 lbs.  40% heifers.
    • Steers:  Medium and Large 1  700-750 lbs (736) 238.20; 750-800 lbs (778) 228.90.
    • Heifers:  Medium and Large 1  600-650 lbs (625) 236.91; 700-750 lbs (721) 216.21.
  • Video Internet Receipts:  6,800    Last Week:  29,600   Last Year:  38,000; (86% over 600 lbs, 20% heifers)
  • Western Video Market: 5,900.  86% over 600 lbs.  23% heifers.
    • Northcentral Region (CO-WY-NE-MT-ND-SD-IA)  Steers:  Medium and Large 1 Sep few loads 425 lbs 350.00.

Read more from the USDA’s May 22 National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report

Compared to last week:  Very little change was seen in the hay market this week as farmers just wait on the new crop to come in. What little bit of hay moved was moved at steady money. Western dairies still have no new contract prices. Demand for Alfalfa hay is light on very light supplies.

Many parts of central Montana received between 1.5 to 3.0 inches of much needed rain last weekend, which was a welcomed sight for all hay farmers. This rain did help curb the worry of an all-out drought, as well as, curb some demand for ranchers buying hay to stock up in case of a drought.

In western Montana hay continues to be sold to cover needs until cows can be turned out. Central Montana range conditions improved drastically with the recent rainfall and many ranchers are busy turning out cows.

Additionally, new crop hay contracts continue to filter in with slightly lower prices since the last rain. Light demand was seen for grass hay marketed within the state. Good demand continues to be seen for hay to ship to other areas of the country.

  • Alfalfa:   Supreme:  Small squares, 200.00
    • Premium:  Large squares, 150.00-155.00
    • Good:     Large squares, 120.00
    • Small squares, 138.00-150.00
    • Fair:     Large squares, 90.00-130.00
  • Grass:  Good:  Large Rounds, 90.00-100.00; New crop contract, 110.00-120.00; Large Squares, 100.00
  • Timothy Grass:  Premium:  Small Squares, 240.00.  Good:  Small Squares,160.00-180.00.
  • Straw:  Large Squares and Rounds, 35.00-40.00.

Read more from the USDA’s May 22 Weekly Montana Hay Report.