August 1, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Rain Brings Slight Drought Relief, Hay Prices Hold Firm

Drought Monitor Update July 30

Montana Drought Monitor Update, July 30, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Frontal rains and leftover moisture from Hurricane Dolores brought above-normal precipitation to parts of California, Nevada, Montana, and the Pacific Northwest this week. The heavier rainfall amounts ranged from half an inch to 2 inches, with less than half an inch common. This is the dry season for the Far West, so even minor amounts of rain equate to well above normal.

A frontal low near the end of the week gave parts of Montana 3+ inches of rain, resulting in contraction of D0-D2 east of the Rockies. The lack of mountain snowpack has contributed to record and near-record low streamflows across much of the Pacific Northwest, with tinder-dry conditions resulting in the closing of the forests in northern Idaho.

Pasture and range conditions were rated poor to very poor across 47% of Oregon, 41% of Washington, and 14% of Idaho, which were slight increases compared to the previous week. Crop harvesting continued, and while most crops were in fair to good condition across the region, 32% of the winter wheat crop in Oregon was rated in poor to very poor condition.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Report for Week Ending July 31

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards

Receipts: 1,225; Last Week 0; Last Year 550

Compared to last week: Downward pressure put on the feeder market due to a lack of support from Live Cattle contracts has limited demand for calves and feeders. Supply consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs and 16 percent heifers. Steers – 925 lbs. @ $204.90 Current FOB. Heifers – 535 lbs. @ $233.00 October FOB

Read more from USDA’s latest Montana Feeders Cattle Report.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – July 31

Receipts This Week:  Total 144,500 – 106,100 (Auctions); 36,900 (Direct); 1,500 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: lower prices continued in the feeder cattle markets as feeder cattle and calves traded mostly 5.00-10.00 lower. Auction receipts were mostly light this week due to the hot temperatures and high humidity causing high heat index levels of near and over 110 degrees in areas across the Midwest and Southern Plains. Receipts for the most part continue to be dominated by yearling cattle over 700 lbs which is where the best demand exists at this time. Demand remains moderate to good with best demand in the Northern Plains for yearlings.

Last week and into Monday of this week Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle contracts took a pounding as long term bulls were nowhere to be found. The cattle complex did finally pull off a positive day of trading on Tuesday with triple-digit gains that extended with modest gains into Wednesday. But, the sometimes upside potential has no sense of urgency to rally much higher anytime soon. Pretty much everybody in the industry knows expansion is well underway, but it will be over a year before many of the heifers retained will calve.

A strong US dollar and weaker export demand from the Pacific Rim countries especially Hong Kong and Japan have beef exports struggling; also beef exports to Mexico have been laboring as well. Competing meat prices are strikingly lower than year ago levels as pork prices hit their all-time highs last summer during the PEDv outbreak and chicken prices were also stronger last year. Corn crop is now rated 70% good to excellent up 1% from last week, with 78% in the silking stage. Corn prices have moved lower this week as favorable weather is in the forecast for the next week.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – July 31

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was steady to firm this week on increased demand across the state. Interest for all hay continues to increase as drought conditions continue across eastern and western Montana, as well as, along the highline. Hay marketed locally was steady this week, while hay to ship to dry locations pushed prices higher. Demand for alfalfa is mostly moderate and moderate to good in some drier locations.

Grass hay held steady after many farmers raised prices last week. Many parts of the state are in the middle of cutting second cutting. Drought conditions eased some this week with 35.69% of the state in Moderate to Extreme drought as of Thursday’s report. That’s a 6.62% decline from last week after spotty, light rain showers fell across the state.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small Squares, 200.00-210.00
    • Good: Large Squares, 150.00-200.00; Large Rounds, 150.00-160.00
    • Fair: Large Squares, 115.00-140.00
  • Grass:
    • Good: Large Rounds, 100.00
    • Large Squares, 100.00-120.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 210.00.
    • Good: Large Round, 120.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

July 26, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Montana Pasture Conditions Deteriorate, Heifer Inventory Up 7 Percent

Drought Monitor Update July 23

Montana Drought Monitor Update, July 7, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Montana Drought Monitor Update, July 21, 2015. Click image to learn more.

In the Pacific Northwest, above average temperatures and precipitation deficits continue to mount across the region with growing concern about potential crop losses in central and eastern Washington. According to the NCEI climatological rankings, the contiguous U.S. average temperature for June was the second hottest in the observational record (1895–2015). On a state level, California, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Washington all experienced their hottest average-temperature Junes on record since 1895.

During the past week, average temperatures were below normal across much of the West with the exception of western portions of California and Oregon, eastern New Mexico, and Washington. Elsewhere, statewide reservoir storage is above average in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.

The NWS WPC 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for generally dry conditions across most of the western U.S. with the exception of some modest accumulation (one-to-two inches) in northern portions of the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and North Cascades.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Montana Weekly Auction Summary for Week Ending July 24

Market: Billings Livestock, Public Auction Yards

Receipts: 997; Last Week 603; Last Year NA

Compared to last week: This report was not released last week due to closed markets at Billings Livestock commission and Miles City, thus no trend is available. Feeder cattle this week were mostly average to attractive quality and sold with light to moderate demand. Larger feeders coming off grass sold with the best demand as they were in light flesh and feedlot ready. Several smaller consignments of fall born un-weaned calves were offered this week with many selling at a discount to long time weaned calves.

CME futures contract prices tumbled throughout the week with the August contract down 5.875 to close at 209.775 and September down 6.40 to close at 207.625 as of Thursday night’s settlement.

Weigh-up cows sold with light demand this week on light to moderate offerings. Packer buyers were very light handed this week as they bid on cows. Large reductions in kill continue to help stabilize the cow market as harvest is currently running 4-10 percent below year ago levels. Feeding cows sold with lighter demand as well this week. There was no push from any direction and cows slid lower as a result. Quality this week was mostly average. Many cows were full and fleshy coming off grass which gave buyers another reason to pass on offerings.

Many bulls are coming off breeding season and are in very light to light flesh. Packer buyers were forced to compete with feeding bull buyers for light weight and very lightly fleshed bulls. 2-3 year old cows sold on very light demand this week for very light offerings.

Read more from USDA’s latest Montana Weekly Auction Summary.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – July 24

Receipts This Week:  Total 162,600 – 93,700 (Auctions); 29,000 (Direct); 39,900 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: the downtrend continues in the feeder cattle markets as feeder cattle and calves traded unevenly steady to 5.00 lower early in the week turning mostly 7.00-10.00 lower from midweek on. Long liquidation selling and feeder cattle futures looking at sharply lower feeder cattle index pressured prices. The feeder cattle market is starting to break hard over the last several weeks and keeps buyers and sellers on the defensive and more conscious of bearish fundamentals. Prices paid for feeder cattle up till now for the most part have been very good for the backgrounder and the cow/calf man. But break evens are so distant that it’s looking impossible for any results to be positive for the cattle feeder.

Northern Livestock Video out of Billings, MT held a three-day video auction this week selling over 93,000 head of top quality feeder calves and yearlings. Some of the top prices paid included 585 head of value added (all Natural) yearling steers weighing 950 lbs sold for 230.00 for November delivery. There was near 3000 head of 900-950 lb steers averaging 910 lbs that sold with a weighted average price of 216.84 for September delivery.

Boxed-beef prices have reached their lowest levels since June 2014, as Choice product on Friday closed down 1.89 at 230.70. The market has been worried about consumer beef demand for a long time with concerns over increasing meat supplies of pork and chicken. Retail prices for June saw beef values hit an all-time high with the average price for all beef sold at retail averaging 6.11/lb.

The July 1st Cattle Inventory Report was released on Friday showing ranchers expanding the cattle herd for the first time since 2006. All cattle and calves came in at 98.4 million head, 2 percent higher than a year ago.

Highlights included:

  • Beef cows at 30.5 million head, up 3 percent from a year ago;
  • Replacement heifers were at 4.90 million head, up 7 percent;
  • Steers over 500 lbs 14.1 million head, up 3 percent.

The 2015 calf crop is expected to be 34.3 million head, up 1 percent from last year. Cattle on Feed Report was mostly neutral to slightly bearish with Cattle on Feed for July 1st at 102 percent; Placements at 101 percent were larger than expected; Marketings were at 95 percent.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – July 24

Compared to last week: Alfalfa was fully steady this week as market participants have set prices and began to fully establish the market. Demand for Alfalfa is mostly moderate and moderate to good in some drier locations. Farmers are continuing to hold on to hay supplies in the hopes that prices will improve as the western drought continues to creep east. Dry conditions in extreme eastern and western Montana, as well as, along the highline, have deteriorated many pasture and range conditions. This has forced some ranchers to purchase hay as a supplemental feed. Grass hay especially has benefited from this as prices edged higher this week. Many parts of the state are starting with second cutting, however rain forecasted for Sunday has some waiting until next week to cut.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Supreme: Small squares, 200.00-210.00
    • Good: Large squares, 150.00
    • Fair: Large squares, 115.00-135.00
  • Grass:
    • Good: Large Rounds, 90.00-100.00
    • Large Squares, 100.00-120.00
  • Timothy Grass:
    • Premium: Small Squares, 180.00.
    • Good: Large Round, 120.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

July 4, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Severe Drought Moves In, Sparks Fly in Cattle and Grain Futures

montana drought monitor June 30

Montana Drought Monitor Update, July 2, 2015. Click image to learn more.

Drought Monitor Update July 2

A  strong ridge over the west and a deep trough over the east dominated the weather this past week. Record high temperatures were recorded over much of the west, with many locations reaching temperatures in the 110 degree range during the week. The heat along with very dry conditions over the last 30 days has elevated the fire risk over much of the west.

Record heat and dryness over the region this week as well as over the last month has quickly deteriorated conditions in many areas after a wet May. A large degradation of drought in Montana was made this week with a full category change in the areas of western and north central Montana.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – Week Ending July 3

Receipts This Week: 127,900 Total – 67,000 (Auctions); 28,600 (Direct); 32,300 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: there was some early fireworks show on this holiday shortened week with a volatile ride in the cattle futures and major moves in the grain trade. Several auctions held special yearling sales this week.

Cattle futures posted a strong rally on Wednesday after “Gloom and Doom” on Tuesday with Live Cattle contracts limit higher and Feeder Cattle contracts getting back most their limit losses from the day before as order buyers received a green light to do business.

The spark that got the fireworks started was USDA’s Grain Stocks Report on Tuesday with all grains trading sharply higher with September corn trading 30 cents higher, August soybeans 55 cents higher and wheat ranging from 28-32 cents higher. Corn stocks came in under average estimates of 4.555 bb fell to 4.465 bb with estimated corn acres at 88.9 million acres, about 2 percent lower than last year’s planted acres. This would be the lowest planted corn acres since 2010 and the thought that a “big crop could get smaller” shook the confidence of the bear. Corn stocks are not in a tight situation but the market is becoming somewhat nervous due to the wet weather problems across the Midwest. This summer has seen some of the highest rainfall totals on record in key growing states potentially drowning out production.

  • Auction Receipts: 67,000; Last Week: 130,100; Last Year: N/A
    • Montana Not enough feeder cattle sales to report
    • Superior Livestock Video – 18,000; 42% over 600 lbs., 41% heifers.
      • Steers: Medium and Large 1 Current few load 775 lbs 233.00; few load 800 lbs 230.00; load 875 lbs 217.50.
      • Heifers: Medium and Large 1 Current 750-800 lbs (765) 218.70; Jul load 765 lbs 210.50; Aug few loads 765 lbs 207.00.

Read more from the USDA’s latest National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – July 3, 2015

Compared to last week: Trade activity is slow on light demand. Warmer, drier conditions are improving demand from the Northwest region of the state and the ability to put up higher quality hay in other areas.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Good: Large squares, 150.00; Round bales
  • Alfalfa/Grass
    • Fair: Round, 110.00
  • Grass:
    • Premium: Small squares, 180.00
    • Good: Round bales, 100.00

Read more from the USDA’s latest Weekly Montana Hay Report.

June 27, 2015 Comments are off Montana Stockgrowers Association
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Drought Moves East, Ranchers Retaining Heifers | June 27 Montana Markets

Drought Monitor Update June 23

montana drought monitor june 23 2015Little precipitation fell from the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast last week. Overall, there was little change in conditions except along the northern tier of states from Montana westward through Washington and Oregon. Continued dryness and exceptionally hot weather kept dryness and drought increasing most significantly across eastern Washington, central and northern Idaho, and western Montana. These areas recorded generally 6 to 12 inches less precipitation than normal in the last 6 months, and less than half of normal amounts in the last 60 days.

View the most current Montana conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary – Week Ending June 27, 2015

Receipts This Week: 254,800 Total – 130,100 (Auctions); 65,500 (Direct); 59,200 (Video/Internet)

Compared to last week: yearling feeder cattle sold mostly steady with spots 2.00 higher to 2.00 lower.  Steer and heifer calves traded steady to 5.00 lower throughout auctions in the Midwest and the Southeast.

The Northern Livestock Video’s Early Summer Special featured over 40,000 head of some of the fanciest cattle that walk the outdoors on Monday and Tuesday.  Many high-country ranchers are adding value by preserving their cattle’s all-natural or NHTC status with near 1300 head of value added steer calves weighing between 500-550 lbs averaging 519 lbs sold with a weighted average price of 307.03 for November delivery. In addition, three loads of value added current delivery steers averaging 825 lbs sold for 243.00. It was also noted that Montana and Wyoming ranchers are aggressively rebuilding their herds with only 26 percent of sales being heifers. Strings of yearlings will soon be moving off double-stocked pastures in the major grazing regions and the dog days of summer will soon be upon us right as consumer beef demand usually suffers its post July 4th hangover.

Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was viewed as neutral to slightly bullish as placements were down near 10 percent compared to year ago levels. Feedlots in most cases continue to face stiff competition from farmer/feeders with plenty of corn on hand, backgrounders and grass operations.

  • Auction Receipts: 130,100; Last Week: 118,900; Last Year: 151,000
    • Montana Not enough feeder cattle sales to report
    • Northern Livestock Video: 40,400. 48 pct over 600 lbs. 26 pct heifers.

Read more from the USDA’s June 27 National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary.

Weekly Montana Hay Report – June 27, 2015

Compared to last week: Trade activity is slow on light demand. Scattered showers across the region are adding to difficulty in 1st cutting production. Improved demand on Dairy quality and export hay. Light demand on cow hay due to Moderate to Heavy supply in the country. This week the US drought monitor again increased the land area in abnormally dry and moderate drought status. Most of this land is in the northwest and southwest corners of the state, where the western drought has inched its way east.

  • Alfalfa:
    • Good: Large squares, 140.00; Round bales, 120.00
    • Fair: Large squares, 90.00-130.00
  • Grass:
    • Premium: Small squares, 180.00
    • Good: Large squares, 120.00
    • Fair: Round bales, 110.00

Read more from the USDA’s June 27 Weekly Montana Hay Report.